🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It often functions as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest race is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun year, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still